VITAL SIGNS for Parents

The Signs Adults Miss in January and February and Why They Matter

By Michael DeLeon, Founder of Steered Straight and Director of Youth Outreach and School Programs at Victoria’s Voice

January is not when most teens get into trouble. It’s when patterns quietly take shape.

After winter break, life looks functional again. Teens return to school. Routines resume. From the outside, everything appears stable—and that’s exactly why January risk is so often overlooked.

The warning signs that emerge during this time are rarely dramatic. They blend easily into what adults expect from teens in the middle of the school year. And because of that, they’re often dismissed until they’re no longer subtle.

Why January Signs Are Easy to Miss

In January, adults are primed to explain things away.

It’s winter. Teens are tired. Motivation dips. Stress is high. Those explanations aren’t wrong—but they’re incomplete. The problem isn’t that adults misinterpret behavior once. It’s that they stop looking closely because the behavior feels familiar.

Substance use that exists in January has usually adapted to structure. It’s quieter. Less impulsive. Less visible. Teens who are using to cope aren’t trying to get caught—they’re trying to get through the day.

That’s why the most important signs in January are about change, not crisis.

The Difference Between Normal Stress and Real Risk

Many behaviors associated with substance misuse overlap with typical adolescent stress. The key is not the behavior itself—it’s the pattern.

Below are common behaviors that deserve a second look, depending on how consistently they show up and how much they differ from a teen’s usual baseline.

Irritability vs. dysregulation

• Normal: Short temper during busy or stressful weeks
• Concerning: Persistent irritability, emotional overreactions, or inability to recover from minor frustrations

When emotions feel harder to manage than before, it may signal that a teen is overwhelmed—and possibly relying on external coping.

Fatigue vs. disengagement

• Normal: Being tired after break and early mornings
• Concerning: Chronic exhaustion, frequent napping, difficulty getting started, or loss of energy for things that once mattered

Disengagement is different from tiredness. It often reflects emotional depletion rather than lack of sleep alone.

Independence vs. withdrawal

• Normal: Wanting more privacy or time alone
• Concerning: Pulling away from family, dropping activities, shrinking social circles, or increased isolation

Withdrawal is about disconnection, not independence.

Stress vs. emotional numbing

• Normal: Talking about pressure or feeling overwhelmed
• Concerning: Flat affect, lack of emotional response, or statements like “I don’t really care”

Emotional numbing can be a sign that a teen is trying to avoid feeling altogether.

Why One-Off Behaviors Matter Less Than Patterns

A bad week doesn’t tell you much. A bad month tells you more.

January risk is about consistency over time. When behaviors persist, intensify, or cluster together, they deserve attention—even if none of them feels alarming on its own.

Helpful questions for adults to ask:

• Is this new or just louder than before?
• Is this happening occasionally or most days?
• Is my teen recovering on their own or staying stuck?
• Is this affecting school, relationships, or motivation?

Patterns reveal risk long before consequences appear.

The Mistake Adults Make: Waiting for Certainty

Adults often wait because they don’t want to overreact. That instinct is understandable—but it’s also where many opportunities are lost.

January rarely provides clear answers. There is no obvious “this is a problem” moment. Waiting for certainty often means waiting until behavior escalates enough to force action.

Early intervention does not require proof of substance use. It requires noticing that something isn’t settling the way it should.

What to Do When Something Feels Off

You don’t need to confront or accuse. You need to stay engaged.

Start with observation, not assumptions.

Give yourself a short window—two to three weeks—to notice patterns intentionally rather than casually.

Compare to baseline, not peers.

Teens differ widely. What matters is whether this teen is functioning differently than they usually do.

Open conversation without interrogation.
Focus on how they’re coping, not what they’re doing.

Helpful openings:

• “I’ve noticed you seem more worn down lately—what’s been hardest?”
• “This time of year is tough for a lot of teens. How are you managing it?”
• “What’s helping you get through the weeks right now?”

Resist the urge to fix it immediately.
Listening builds trust. Jumping to solutions too quickly can shut the conversation down.

When Watching Turns into Action

Watching should turn into action when patterns continue without improvement.

It’s time to act when:

• Changes persist or worsen over several weeks.
• Emotional regulation continues to decline.
• Coping seems limited or unhealthy.
• Functioning at school or home starts to slip.

Action doesn’t have to mean punishment or crisis intervention. It can mean:

• Reintroducing structure and predictability
• Increasing check-ins and connection
• Looping in a school counselor or trusted professional
• Addressing stressors directly rather than hoping they pass

The Bottom Line

January isn’t dangerous because it’s dramatic.
It’s dangerous because it’s quiet.

The signs adults miss during this season are often the earliest indicators that a teen is struggling to cope—and early support is far more effective than late intervention.

Paying attention now doesn’t mean assuming the worst. It means refusing to ignore patterns simply because they’re easy to explain away.

Noticing early is not overreacting. It’s how problems get interrupted before they grow.

For more information and resources, we encourage you to access our free online VITAL SIGNS prevention program for parents at https://victoriasvoicefoundation.thinkific.com.